各种箱子的期望收益

05/2896 浏览综合
从以上概率估计贴获得的信息:
1. 箱子头奖综合中奖概率为6.92%,其中保底概率为2.02%,所以非大奖奖项的实际中奖概率应该为原概率基础上乘以97.98%(因为触发保底时其他奖项不会获得)。
2. 紫合橙的期望为2.6%,合成重铸石的期望为30.73%
最合算的装备分解重铸石是橙装分解出1-4颗,期望为2.5颗
接下来计算各箱子的期望收益:
金箱子:
绿/蓝/紫/橙/橙专/红概率分别是25%/25%/20%/15%/10%/5%
绿蓝紫换算成的紫是(25%/9+25%/3+20%)*97.98%=30.48%紫
绿蓝紫橙换算成的橙色是30.48%*2.6%+15%*97.98%=15.49%橙色和30.48%*30.73%=9.37%重铸石,全换算成重铸石是48.1%
绿蓝紫橙橙专换算成橙专是15.49%/2+10%*97.98%=17.54%橙专和9.37%-15.49%/2=1.62%重铸石
简单考虑武器升星时,专武升级时按一红专等于三橙专算,约等于38.3%橙专和1.62%重铸石
紫箱子:
白/绿/蓝/紫/橙/橙专概率分别是25%/25%/20%/15%/10%/5%
白绿蓝紫换算成的紫是(25%/27+25%/9+20%/3+15%)*97.98%=24.86%紫
白绿蓝紫橙换算成的橙色是24.86%*2.6%+10%*97.98%=10.444%橙色和24.86%*30.73%=7.64%重铸石,全换算成重铸石是33.75%
白绿蓝紫橙橙专换算成橙专是10.444%/2+6.92%=12.14%橙专和7.64%-10.444%/2=2.42%重铸石
蓝箱子:
白/绿/蓝/紫/橙概率分别是50%/20%/15%/10%/5%
白绿蓝紫换算成紫是(50%/27+20%/9+15%/3+10%)*97.98%=18.69%紫
白绿蓝紫橙换算成橙色是18.69%*2.6%+6.92%=7.406%橙色和18.69%*30.73%=5.74%重铸石,全换算成重铸石是24.25%
换算成橙专武是3.7%橙武和2.04%重铸石
绿箱子:
白/绿/蓝/紫概率分别是70%/15%/10%/5%
白绿蓝紫换算成紫是(70%/27+15%/9+10%/3)*97.98%+6.92%=14.51%紫,换算成橙色是14.51%*2.6%=0.377%橙和14.51%*30.73%=4.46%重铸石,全换算成重铸石是5.40%
换算成橙专是0.189%橙专和4.27%重铸石
白箱子:
白/绿/蓝概率分别是85%/10%/5%
白绿蓝换算成紫是(85%/27+10%/9)*97.98%+6.92%/3=6.48%紫,换算成橙色是6.48%*2.6%=0.168%橙色和6.48%*30.73%=1.99%重铸石,全换算成重铸石是2.41%
换算成橙专是0.084%橙专和1.91%重铸石
按比例做个箱子价值计算:
橙装数量大约是1金=3.15紫=10.3蓝=203绿=456白
重铸石数量大约是1金=1.43紫=1.98蓝=8.9绿=20.0白
当然,由于红装只能通过金箱子获得,金箱子并不能简单如此等同于橙装。仅供参考
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